Nitto ATP Finals: Player to Qualify: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Frances Tiafoe at 97.0%, ahead of Rafael Jodar at 62.5%. $144K traded across 32 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | 97.0% | +0.5 |
| Rafael Jodar | 62.5% | -4.4 |
| Tommy Paul | 28.5% | +11.6 |
| Taylor Fritz | 21.3% | +5.1 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 3.5% | 0.0 |
| Ignacio Buse | 3.3% | 0.0 |
| Valentin Vacherot | 3.0% | 0.0 |
| Arthur Fery | 2.9% | -0.5 |
| Alexander Blockx | 2.5% | 0.0 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 2.0% | 0.0 |
| Andrey Rublev | 1.9% | 0.0 |
| Jiri Lehecka | 1.7% | -0.8 |
| Quentin Halys | 1.6% | 0.0 |
| Raphael Collignon | 1.6% | 0.0 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 1.5% | +0.4 |
| Novak Djokovic | 1.4% | -0.3 |
| Brandon Nakashima | 1.4% | -0.8 |
| Alex de Minaur | 1.3% | 0.0 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1.2% | -0.8 |
| Alexander Bublik | 1.1% | -0.4 |
| Learner Tien | 1.1% | -2.3 |
| Ugo Humbert | 1.1% | -0.1 |
| Jakub Mensik | 1.1% | -0.9 |
| Casper Ruud | 1.1% | -0.5 |
| Luciano Darderi | 0.9% | -0.1 |
| Mariano Navone | 0.8% | -0.1 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Joao Fonseca | 0.5% | -0.1 |
| Zizou Bergs | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified player qualifies for the singles main draw of the 2026 Nitto ATP Finals, currently scheduled for November 15, 2026 to November 22, 2026, in Turin, Italy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A player is considered to have "qualified" if they are named to one of the eight (8) singles main-draw spots according to the official ATP source. If a player qualifies but withdraws before competing, they will still be considered to have "qualified" and this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond December 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the eight-player singles field has not been officially determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the ATP Tour (atptour.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Nitto ATP Finals: Player to Qualify"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Frances Tiafoe is the favorite at 97.0%, followed by Rafael Jodar at 62.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 7, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $144K in total and $12K in the last 24 hours, with about $70K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.