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Home / Markets / Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?
Live market data

Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is March 31, 2027 at 20.0%, ahead of December 31, 2026 at 7.0%. $303K traded across 2 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

20.0%
March 31, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

0.0
pts · 7d 0.0

Volume

$303K
24h $1 · liquidity $30K

Closes

April 1, 2027
146 days left

UKReformPoliticsReform UKMakerfield

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
March 31, 202720.0% 0.00.0$10K2.0¢
December 31, 20267.0% +0.5-0.5$293K2.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%06-2408-3011-06
March 31, 2027December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying March 31, 2027 at 20% risks 20¢ to win 80¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, March 31, 2027 is the favorite at 20.0%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 7.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on April 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$303K in total and $1 in the last 24 hours, with about $30K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.