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Resolved market scorecard

Next UK Prime Minister appointed by…?: result and scorecard

Resolved July 31. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.8%; a week before, 98.7%. $98K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

July 31
resolved July 20, 2026

Price 1 day before

98.8%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

98.7%
30 days before: –

Volume

$98K
6 outcomes

UKLabourStarmerPoliticsAndy Burnham

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
July 31WON$25K
September 30WON$18K
July 21WON$2K
July 20WON$2K
July 19LOST$48K
July 16LOST$4K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%06-2307-0707-20
July 31September 30July 21July 20
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next Prime Minister of the UK is officially appointed by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed, or Keir Starmer is re-appointed as Prime Minister without another intervening Prime Minister, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Next UK Prime Minister appointed by…?" resolve?
It resolved July 31 around September 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.8% one day before close, 98.7% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$98K across 6 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.