Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Ethiopia at 27.5%, ahead of South Sudan at 25.5%. $80K traded across 10 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
EbolaCultureWeatherPandemicsHantavirus
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Ethiopia | 27.5% | +6.5 |
| South Sudan | 25.5% | -2.0 |
| Republic of the Congo | 21.5% | +1.0 |
| Somalia | 21.5% | 0.0 |
| Rwanda | 20.0% | +1.0 |
| Burundi | 19.0% | 0.0 |
| India | 13.0% | +0.5 |
| Canada | 8.5% | 0.0 |
| United States | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| China | 5.2% | -0.4 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Ethiopia is the favorite at 27.5%, followed by South Sudan at 25.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $80K in total and $449 in the last 24 hours, with about $25K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.