What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is ↑ $4,500 at 49.5%, ahead of ↓ $3,500 at 8.5%. $2.6M traded across 11 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
GoldCOMEX Gold FeaturesHide From NewCommoditiesFinance
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| ↑ $4,500 | 49.5% | 0.0 |
| ↓ $3,500 | 8.5% | +2.5 |
| ↑ $5,000 | 5.9% | +0.8 |
| ↓ $3,000 | 3.0% | +0.1 |
| ↑ $6,000 | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| ↑ $10,000 | 1.5% | 0.0 |
| ↑ $7,000 | 1.5% | -0.4 |
| ↑ $8,000 | 1.4% | -0.3 |
| ↑ $12,000 | 1.1% | +0.2 |
| ↑ $15,000 | 1.0% | +0.1 |
| ↓ $2,500 | 0.8% | +0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price between market creation and the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market’s creation will not be considered. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, ↑ $4,500 is the favorite at 49.5%, followed by ↓ $3,500 at 8.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $2.6M in total and $58K in the last 24 hours, with about $731K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.