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Resolved market scorecard

Maduro out by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved January 31, 2026. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 6.5%; a week before, 13.5%. $56.6M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:55 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

January 31, 2026
resolved January 3, 2026

Price 1 day before

6.5%
Market was confident and wrong

Price 7 days before

13.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$56.6M
6 outcomes

VenezuelaPolitics2025 PredictionsWorld

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
January 31, 2026WON$11.0M
March 31, 2026WON$3.8M
December 31, 2026WON$834K
February 28, 2026WON$812K
December 31, 2025LOST$34.6M
November 30, 2025LOST$5.6M

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%11-0412-0401-03
January 31, 2026March 31, 2026December 31, 2026February 28, 2026
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 7% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Venezuela's president, Nicolás Maduro, is removed from power for any length of time between January 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". President Nicolás Maduro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Venezuela within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Maduro out by...?" resolve?
It resolved January 31, 2026 around December 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 6.5% one day before close, 13.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$56.6M across 6 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.