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Live market data

Lima Mayoral Election Winner: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Rafael López Aliaga at 54.3%, ahead of Person B at 50.0%. $604K traded across 49 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

54.3%
Rafael López Aliaga · Trade →

24h move

-5.7
pts · 7d -29.9

Volume

$604K
24h $941 · liquidity $266K

Closes

October 5, 2026
0 days left

PeruPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal Elections

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Rafael López Aliaga54.3% -5.7-29.9$216K38.1¢
Person B50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person C50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person D50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person E50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person F50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person G50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person H50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person I50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person J50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person K50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person L50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person M50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person N50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person O50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person P50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person Q50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person R50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person S50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person T50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person U50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person V50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person W50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person X50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person Y50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person Z50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Other50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Francis James Allison Oyague2.1% +0.5-0.6$174K1.2¢
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca0.6% +0.1-0.5$97K0.8¢
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli0.1% 0.00.0$15K0.3¢
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León0.1% 0.00.0$3K0.1¢
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo0.1% 0.00.0$10K0.1¢
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera0.1% 0.00.0$18K0.1¢
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero0.1% 0.00.0$3K0.1¢
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype0.1% 0.00.0$18K0.1¢
Segundo Valdez Zavala0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero0.1% 0.00.0$2K0.1¢
Yehude Simón Munaro0.1% 0.00.0$10K0.1¢
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué0.1% 0.00.0$12K0.1¢
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega0.1% 0.00.0$3K0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
Rafael López Aliaga

Market rules and resolution

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Rafael López Aliaga at 54% risks 54¢ to win 46¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Lima Mayoral Election Winner"?
As of November 6, 2026, Rafael López Aliaga is the favorite at 54.3%, followed by Person B at 50.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on October 5, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$604K in total and $941 in the last 24 hours, with about $266K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.