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Home / Markets / Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock out from the Senate in 2026?
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Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock out from the Senate in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 3.3% (-0.1 pts in 24h). $2K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:12 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

3.3%
No 96.7% · Trade →

24h move

-0.1
pts · 7d -0.1

Volume

$2K
24h $0 · liquidity $2K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

SenategeorgiaPoliticsTrump Speech

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes3.3% -0.1-0.1$2K2.6¢
No96.7% +0.1+0.1$2K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:12 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No." Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 3% risks 3¢ to win 97¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock out from the Senate in 2026?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 3.3% and No at 96.7%, on $2K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$2K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $2K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.