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Home / Markets / JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?
Resolved market scorecard

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved April 30. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 93.7%; a week before, 8.5%. $2.5M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

April 30
resolved April 11, 2026

Price 1 day before

93.7%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

8.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$2.5M
8 outcomes

Foreign PolicyVanceIran CeasefirePoliticsTrump

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
April 30WON$778K
April 11WON$137K
April 12WON$27K
April 13WON$21K
April 15WON$17K
April 14WON$11K
April 10LOST$1.3M
March 31LOST$159K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%04-0204-0504-09
April 30
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 94% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between JD Vance as representative of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, JD Vance must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by...?" resolve?
It resolved April 30 around April 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 93.7% one day before close, 8.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$2.5M across 8 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.