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Live market data

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is December 31, 2027 at 34.5%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 18.0%. $8.6M traded across 4 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

34.5%
December 31, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

-1.5
pts · 7d -17.5

Volume

$8.6M
24h $749 · liquidity $78K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

GeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranLebanonIsrael

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
December 31, 202734.5% -1.5-17.5$67K1.0¢
June 30, 202718.0% -2.5-7.5$9K2.0¢
March 31, 202710.5% -1.0-8.5$10K1.0¢
December 312.0% -0.4-3.4$282K0.8¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%06-2308-3011-06
December 31, 2027June 30, 2027March 31, 2027December 31

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31, 2027 at 35% risks 35¢ to win 66¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2027 is the favorite at 34.5%, followed by June 30, 2027 at 18.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$8.6M in total and $749 in the last 24 hours, with about $78K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.