Iowa Senate loser concedes by...?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson, the candidate who does not win the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate general election concedes that election by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A concession is defined as an unambiguous public statement that acknowledges that the candidate lost the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate general election, will not be the next U.S. Senator from Iowa, or acknowledges the victory of an opponent. If a candidate makes these acknowledgements while also claiming that the election was rigged or that there was fraud, this will still qualify as a concession. Any public statement from the relevant candidate, written or verbal, will qualify. Speeches in which the relevant candidate begins speaking within this market's timeframe will qualify, even if the declaration of concession falls outside this market's timeframe. If neither of the listed candidates wins the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate general election, this market will only resolve to "Yes" if both listed candidates make a concession as described above. Only public statements from the relevant candidate will qualify. Reports of private conversations (e.g., if the candidate called the victor and conceded over the phone) will not count. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson, the candidate who does not win the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate general election concedes that election by November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A concession is defined as an unambiguous public statement that acknowledges that the candidate lost the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate general election, will not be the next U.S. Senator from Iowa, or acknowledges the victory of an opponent. If a candidate makes these acknowledgements while also claiming that the election was rigged or that there was fraud, this will still qualify as a concession. Any public statement from the relevant candidate, written or verbal, will qualify. Speeches in which the relevant candidate begins speaking within this market's timeframe will qualify, even if the declaration of concession falls outside this market's timeframe. If neither of the listed candidates wins the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate general election, this market will only resolve to "Yes" if both listed candidates make a concession as described above. Only public statements from the relevant candidate will qualify