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Home / Markets / How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative
Resolved market scorecard

How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?: result and scorecard

Resolved 22+. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 43.5%; a week before, 22.9%. $49K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:08 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

22+
resolved May 4, 2026

Price 1 day before

43.5%
Market was a coin flip

Price 7 days before

22.9%
30 days before: 19.5%

Volume

$49K
6 outcomes

IndiaIndian ElectionsGlobal ElectionsPoliticsElections

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
22+WON$11K
16–18LOST$27K
19–21LOST$5K
<10LOST$3K
13–15LOST$1K
10–12LOST$435

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%12-2402-2705-04
22+16–1819–21<10
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 44% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).

Frequently asked questions

How did "How many seats will IUML win in the next Kerala Legislative Assembly election?" resolve?
It resolved 22+ around April 9, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 43.5% one day before close, 22.9% one week before and 19.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$49K across 6 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.