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Resolved market scorecard

GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved October 31. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 16.5%; a week before, 30.0%. $8K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

October 31
resolved October 7, 2026

Price 1 day before

16.5%
Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

30.0%
30 days before: 14.0%

Volume

$8K
3 outcomes

TechCodingGitHuboutagemicrosoft

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
October 31WON$5K
September 30LOST$2K
August 31LOST$1K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%08-2009-1310-07
October 31September 30August 31
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 17% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub's Git Operations service experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as “critical” and lists Git Operations among the incident's affected components ones the incident is marked “Resolved”. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only an impact of Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. “Degraded Performance,” “Partial Outage,” or “Major Outage”) will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. Incidents that do not list Git Operations among their affected components, including incidents that list no affected components, will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "GitHub Git Operations critical incident by...?" resolve?
It resolved October 31 around November 1, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 16.5% one day before close, 30.0% one week before and 14.0% one month before.
How much was traded?
$8K across 3 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.