DOJ fines Nvidia over Groq deal in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a fine or any other civil or criminal monetary penalty imposed on Nvidia Corporation (Nvidia), or agreed to by Nvidia in a settlement, consent decree, deferred prosecution agreement, non-prosecution agreement, or plea agreement, concerning Nvidia's licensing agreement with Groq, Inc. and the related hiring of Groq personnel announced on December 24, 2025, including any amendment, restructuring, or replacement of that arrangement (the Groq agreement), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying penalty is a payment of any amount that Nvidia, or any parent, subsidiary, or successor of Nvidia, is ordered or agrees to pay to the United States government as a fine, civil penalty, criminal penalty, or disgorgement in connection with the Groq agreement, including any penalty for an alleged failure to file a premerger notification or observe a required waiting period for that agreement. The penalty must be announced by the DOJ, filed in court by the DOJ, or ordered by a court in a case brought by the DOJ; a penalty announced jointly by the DOJ and another federal agency qualifies. A penalty imposed or agreed to in a matter to which the DOJ is not a party will not qualify. A settlement, consent decree, deferred prosecution agreement, non-prosecution agreement, or plea agreement in which Nvidia agrees to pay a qualifying penalty counts as of the date the DOJ announces it or files it in court, regardless of whether a court has approved it by the resolution date. A penalty that resolves allegations concerning the Groq agreement together with allegations concerning other matters qualifies, whether or not any portion of the penalty is attributed to the Groq agreement. A qualifying penalty counts regardless of whether it is later reduced, vacated, or appealed. The following will not qualify on their own: the opening, continuation, or expansion of an investigation; subpoenas, civil investigative demands, requests for information, or second requests for information; the filing of a complaint or lawsuit that seeks a penalty that has not yet been imposed or agreed to; statements about a possible or future penalty; non-monetary relief such as an order to unwind or modify the Groq agreement, divestitures, conduct remedies, or compliance monitoring; penalties imposed only on individuals; penaltie