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Resolved market scorecard

California Governor Election Winner: result and scorecard

Resolved Xavier Becerra. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.2%; a week before, 96.7%. $44.9M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Xavier Becerra
resolved November 4, 2026

Price 1 day before

98.2%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

96.7%
30 days before: 95.7%

Volume

$44.9M
45 outcomes

California MidtermGovernor ElectionsCalifornia GovernorElectionsPolitics

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Xavier BecerraWON$3.5M
Steve HiltonLOST$4.9M
Tom SteyerLOST$4.9M
Alex PadillaLOST$2.0M
Chad BiancoLOST$2.0M
Kyle LangfordLOST$1.8M
Rick CarusoLOST$1.8M
Nicole ShanahanLOST$1.8M
Katie PorterLOST$1.8M
Betty YeeLOST$1.8M
Antonio VillaraigosaLOST$1.6M
Stephen CloobeckLOST$1.6M
Kamala HarrisLOST$1.6M
Toni AtkinsLOST$1.6M
Michael YoungerLOST$1.5M
Eric SwalwellLOST$1.5M
Eleni KounalakisLOST$1.4M
Tony ThurmondLOST$1.4M
Daniel MercuriLOST$1.4M
Matt MahanLOST$1.4M
Butch WareLOST$1.3M
Elaine CulottiLOST$1.3M
Leo ZackyLOST$1.1M
Option FLOST$0
Option GLOST$0
Option HLOST$0
Option ILOST$0
Option JLOST$0
Option KLOST$0
Option LLOST$0
Option MLOST$0
Option NLOST$0
Option OLOST$0
Option PLOST$0
Option QLOST$0
Option RLOST$0
Option SLOST$0
Option TLOST$0
Option ULOST$0
Option VLOST$0
Option WLOST$0
Option XLOST$0
Option YLOST$0
Option ZLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%10-1004-2311-04
Xavier BecerraSteve HiltonTom SteyerAlex Padilla
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 98% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Frequently asked questions

How did "California Governor Election Winner" resolve?
It resolved Xavier Becerra around November 4, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.2% one day before close, 96.7% one week before and 95.7% one month before.
How much was traded?
$44.9M across 45 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

CA-23 House Election WinnerCA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)California Governor Election: Fresno County WinnerCA-07 House Election Winner (by individual)California Higher Local Tax Vote Threshold PropositionCalifornia Recall Election Reform PropositionCA-11 House Election WinnerAll live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.