Who is favored in "CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)"?

As of November 6, 2026, Eric Jones is the favorite at 93.6%, followed by Candidate A at 50.0%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on November 5, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$45K in total and $3K in the last 24 hours, with about $22K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)

Live market data

CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual): live odds and probabilities

Name: CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual) prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is Eric Jones at 93.6%, ahead of Candidate A at 50.0%. $45K traded across 6 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

93.6%

Eric Jones · Trade →

24h move

-0.9

pts · 7d +52.1

Volume

$45K

24h $3K · liquidity $22K

Closes

November 5, 2026

0 days left

Midterms Politics Elections deprec USA Election House Elections

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Eric Jones	93.6%	-0.9	+52.1	$22K	3.4¢
Candidate A	50.0%	0.0	0.0	$0	100.0¢
Candidate B	50.0%	0.0	0.0	$0	100.0¢
Candidate C	50.0%	0.0	0.0	$0	100.0¢
Other	50.0%	0.0	0.0	$0	100.0¢
Mike Thompson	6.5%	+2.5	-51.0	$23K	3.8¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Eric Jones

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Eric Jones at 94% risks 94¢ to win 6¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)"?: As of November 6, 2026, Eric Jones is the favorite at 93.6%, followed by Candidate A at 50.0%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on November 5, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $45K in total and $3K in the last 24 hours, with about $22K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.