LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / 50% India tariff in effect by August 27?
Resolved market scorecard

50% India tariff in effect by August 27?: result and scorecard

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 96.5%; a week before, 41.5%. $77K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes
resolved August 27, 2025

Price 1 day before

96.5%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

41.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$77K
1 outcome

Trump PresidencyTrumpGeopoliticsPoliticsTrade War

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesWON$77K
NoLOST$77K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%08-0708-1708-27
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 97% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 50% tariff on imports into the United States from India goes into effect for any amount of time by August 27, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have passed without being further delayed or suspended. A general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a policy of a general 50% tariff on imports into the United States from India goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting India will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "50% India tariff in effect by August 27?" resolve?
It resolved Yes around August 27, 2025.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 96.5% one day before close, 41.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$77K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.