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2nd richest person on December 31?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Jeff Bezos at 58.7%, ahead of Michael Dell at 28.5%. $50K traded across 11 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

58.7%
Jeff Bezos · Trade →

24h move

+8.6
pts · 7d +37.0

Volume

$50K
24h $0 · liquidity $14K

Closes

January 3, 2027
58 days left

BusinessElon MuskBig TechCulture

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Jeff Bezos58.7% +8.6+37.0$11K53.5¢
Michael Dell28.5% -8.5+1.5$057.0¢
Sergey Brin26.6% -11.1-7.3$8K52.1¢
Larry Page25.0% +0.5-17.5$22K28.0¢
Jensen Huang22.4% +0.9-2.7$2K44.2¢
Warren Buffett18.8% -0.3-2.5$2K37.0¢
Steve Ballmer14.1% +0.7-10.9$1K27.7¢
Bernard Arnault11.7% +0.9+0.2$1K19.3¢
Mark Zuckerberg6.4% +2.8-0.9$75812.2¢
Larry Ellison2.6% 0.0+0.1$1K4.5¢
Elon Musk2.2% 0.00.0$1K3.4¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%01-3106-1911-06
Jeff BezosMichael DellSergey BrinLarry Page

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #2 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Jeff Bezos at 59% risks 59¢ to win 41¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "2nd richest person on December 31?"?
As of November 6, 2026, Jeff Bezos is the favorite at 58.7%, followed by Michael Dell at 28.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 3, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$50K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $14K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.