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Home / Markets / Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?
Resolved market scorecard

Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?: result and scorecard

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.5%; a week before, –. $31K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No
resolved June 21, 2026

Price 1 day before

98.5%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$31K
1 outcome

IranTrumpVanceCulturePolitics

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesLOST$31K
NoWON$31K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%06-1606-1806-21
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 98% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance shakes hands with any current government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran by June 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying partner in a handshake with JD Vance must be a government official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released within this market’s time frame to qualify. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible in photographs or video. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. The resolution source will be photo or video.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?" resolve?
It resolved No around June 20, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.5% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$31K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.