Who is favored in "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?"?

As of November 6, 2026, December 31 is the favorite at 2.2%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$7.9M in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $70K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

Live market data

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is December 31 at 2.2%. $7.9M traded across 1 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

2.2%

December 31 · Trade →

24h move

-0.1

pts · 7d -3.0

Volume

$7.9M

24h $2K · liquidity $70K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

US-Iran Israel Iran Geopolitics Politics

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
December 31	2.2%	-0.1	-3.0	$894K	0.4¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

December 31

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31 at 2% risks 2¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?"?: As of November 6, 2026, December 31 is the favorite at 2.2%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $7.9M in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $70K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.