Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is November 30 at 9.5%. $54K traded across 1 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
IranUS-IrandiplomacyAmbassadorGeopolitics
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 9.5% | -16.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by...?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, November 30 is the favorite at 9.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $54K in total and $306 in the last 24 hours, with about $3K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.