Resolved market scorecard
Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31?: result and scorecard
Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.9%; a week before, 78.1%. $658K traded in total.
Result
No
resolved January 1, 2026
Price 1 day before
99.9%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
78.1%
30 days before: 95.8%
Volume
$658K
1 outcome
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Yes | LOST |
| No | WON |
Price history to resolution
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated's total Bitcoin holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings. For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31?" resolve?
- It resolved No around January 1, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 78.1% one week before and 95.8% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $658K across 1 outcome.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.