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Home / Markets / María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
Resolved market scorecard

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved October 31. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 9.0%; a week before, 4.5%. $6.9M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

October 31
resolved October 25, 2026

Price 1 day before

9.0%
Market was confident and wrong

Price 7 days before

4.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$6.9M
15 outcomes

Trump-MachadoTrumpVenezuelaPolitics

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
October 31WON$191K
December 31WON$169K
January 31LOST$2.6M
March 31LOST$2.0M
April 30LOST$733K
June 30LOST$315K
July 31LOST$298K
January 9LOST$264K
May 31LOST$200K
September 30LOST$88K
October 15LOST$21K
August 31LOST$11K
August 31OPEN$0
January 24OPEN$0
March 8LOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-0305-3110-25
October 31December 31January 31March 31
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 9% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and Janaury 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?" resolve?
It resolved October 31 around January 1, 2027.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 9.0% one day before close, 4.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$6.9M across 15 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.