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Live market data

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? : live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 10.4% (+6.0 pts in 24h). $344K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

10.4%
No 89.5% · Trade →

24h move

+6.0
pts · 7d +1.8

Volume

$344K
24h $7 · liquidity $21K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

EpsteinKash PatelPoliticsTrumppam bondi

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes10.4% +6.0+1.8$344K2.9¢
No89.5% -6.0-1.8$344K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%02-0206-2011-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any individual serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison, and the cause of that incarceration is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government on or after December 19, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying incarceration must be caused by information included in Epstein-related files released on or after December 19, 2025. The cause of incarceration may be established through official charging documents, court rulings, sentencing statements, or through a clear consensus of credible reporting attributing the incarceration to information contained in those released files. Incarceration driven by information that was publicly known before December 19, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official court records or government statements, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 10% risks 10¢ to win 90¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? ?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 10.4% and No at 89.5%, on $344K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$344K in total and $7 in the last 24 hours, with about $21K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.