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Home / Markets / Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterm
Resolved market scorecard

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?: result and scorecard

Resolved Oil ≥ $85; D Senate. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 73.9%; a week before, 63.7%. $1.3M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Oil ≥ $85; D Senate
resolved November 4, 2026

Price 1 day before

73.9%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

63.7%
30 days before: –

Volume

$1.3M
4 outcomes

OilSenateMidtermsPoliticsElections

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Oil ≥ $85; D SenateWON$333K
Oil < $85; R SenateLOST$386K
Oil < $85; D SenateLOST$369K
Oil ≥ $85; R SenateLOST$254K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%10-1310-2411-04
Oil ≥ $85; D SenateOil < $85; R SenateOil < $85; D SenateOil ≥ $85; R Senate
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 74% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; R Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil < $85; D Senate" if oil is less than $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; R Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Oil ≥ $85; D Senate" if oil is greater than or equal to $85 at the close of trading on November 2, 2026, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Oil price: The oil price component will be determined based on the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the November 2, 2026 trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the oil price component will be determined based on the Close price for the most recent prior trading day. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market (See: "Trading Hours" at https://www.ice.com/products/213/WTI-Crude-Fu

Frequently asked questions

How did "Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?" resolve?
It resolved Oil ≥ $85; D Senate around November 4, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 73.9% one day before close, 63.7% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$1.3M across 4 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.