Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Ursula von der Leyen at 40.5%, ahead of Mark Rutte at 37.5%. $794K traded across 8 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Ursula von der Leyen | 40.5% | -6.0 |
| Mark Rutte | 37.5% | -9.5 |
| Melania Trump | 9.0% | 0.0 |
| António Guterres | 8.5% | +0.5 |
| Mark Carney | 8.0% | 0.0 |
| Emmanuel Macron | 7.5% | -1.5 |
| JD Vance | 3.5% | -0.5 |
| Donald Trump | 3.0% | -0.3 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Ursula von der Leyen is the favorite at 40.5%, followed by Mark Rutte at 37.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $794K in total and $439 in the last 24 hours, with about $80K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.