Resolved market scorecard
Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary? : result and scorecard
Resolved Pete Hegseth. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 96.7%; a week before, 94.8%. $14.0M traded in total.
Result
Pete Hegseth
resolved January 25, 2025
Price 1 day before
96.7%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
94.8%
30 days before: 72.5%
Volume
$14.0M
15 outcomes
Trump PresidencyTrump CabinetTrumpPoliticsron desantis
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | WON |
| Robert O'Brien | LOST |
| Mike Gallagher | LOST |
| Thomas Massie | LOST |
| Christopher Miller | LOST |
| Joni Ernst | LOST |
| Ron DeSantis | LOST |
| Mike Pompeo | LOST |
| Mike Waltz | LOST |
| Tom Cotton | LOST |
| Mike Rogers | LOST |
| Elbridge Colby | LOST |
| Person D | LOST |
| Person E | LOST |
| Other | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Pete HegsethRobert O'BrienMike GallagherThomas Massie
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 97% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
This is a market on predicting the individual who will be confirmed as the next Secretary of Defense.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary? " resolve?
- It resolved Pete Hegseth around June 30, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 96.7% one day before close, 94.8% one week before and 72.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $14.0M across 15 outcomes.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.