Who will be impeached by June 30, 2027?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Pete Hegseth - Secretary of Defense at 58.0%, ahead of Donald Trump - President at 47.5%. $3K traded across 8 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth - Secretary of Defense | 58.0% | +8.0 |
| Donald Trump - President | 47.5% | -2.5 |
| Kash Patel - FBI Director | 35.5% | -14.5 |
| Todd Blanche - Attorney General | 28.0% | -22.0 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. - Secretary of Health and Human Services | 27.0% | -23.0 |
| Russ Vought - OMB Director | 24.5% | -25.5 |
| Linda McMahon - Secretary of Education | 19.0% | -31.0 |
| Marco Rubio - Secretary of State | 19.0% | -31.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. House of Representatives adopts one or more articles of impeachment against the specified individual in connection with their specified role between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the U.S. Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes". If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office before any article of impeachment is adopted, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. House of Representatives, including the Office of the Clerk and Congress.gov; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Who will be impeached by June 30, 2027?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Pete Hegseth - Secretary of Defense is the favorite at 58.0%, followed by Donald Trump - President at 47.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $3K in total and $3K in the last 24 hours, with about $3K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.