Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Pete Hegseth at 36.5%, ahead of Donald Trump at 23.5%. $29K traded across 9 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
TrumpRFK JrHegsethPoliticsimpeachment
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 36.5% | +4.5 |
| Donald Trump | 23.5% | -3.0 |
| Nobody | 22.5% | -0.5 |
| Todd Blanche | 8.5% | +0.3 |
| Howard Lutnick | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 3.6% | 0.0 |
| Clarence Thomas | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| Samuel Alito | 0.6% | -0.1 |
| JD Vance | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to which of the listed individuals is the first to be the subject of articles of impeachment passed by the United States House of Representatives between market creation and December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Articles of impeachment passed against any individual not listed in this market will not be considered. In the event that articles of impeachment are passed against multiple listed individuals simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of the listed individual, among those with articles of impeachment passed against them, whose last name is first in alphabetical order. In the event that none of the listed individuals is impeached by the United States House of Representatives by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nobody". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Pete Hegseth is the favorite at 36.5%, followed by Donald Trump at 23.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $29K in total and $3K in the last 24 hours, with about $67K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.