Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is None in 2026 at 43.5%, ahead of Google at 30.0%. $142K traded across 9 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| None in 2026 | 43.5% | -2.0 |
| 30.0% | -4.5 | |
| Anthropic | 12.0% | +0.5 |
| OpenAI | 3.5% | +0.4 |
| xAI | 0.6% | 0.0 |
| DeepSeek | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Alibaba | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Z.ai | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Mistral | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, None in 2026 is the favorite at 43.5%, followed by Google at 30.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $142K in total and $87 in the last 24 hours, with about $15K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.