Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of December?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Anthropic at 53.0%, ahead of Company A at 50.0%. $15K traded across 35 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
AIMathTechRecurringAI Rankings
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 53.0% | 0.0 |
| Company A | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company B | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company C | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company D | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company E | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company F | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company G | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company H | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company I | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company J | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company K | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company L | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company M | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| 36.5% | -0.5 | |
| OpenAI | 5.0% | -0.5 |
| Microsoft | 5.0% | -0.1 |
| StepFun | 4.7% | -0.1 |
| Tencent | 4.7% | -0.1 |
| MiniMax | 4.4% | -0.1 |
| Mistral | 4.2% | 0.0 |
| DeepSeek | 3.7% | -1.0 |
| Meta | 3.6% | 0.0 |
| Moonshot | 3.2% | 0.0 |
| Z.ai | 1.4% | 0.0 |
| Alibaba | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Meituan | 0.7% | +0.1 |
| Thinky | 0.6% | 0.0 |
| SpaceXAI | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Baidu | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Xiaomi | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Nvidia | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Amazon | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| ByteDance | 0.4% | -0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of December?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Anthropic is the favorite at 53.0%, followed by Company A at 50.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $15K in total and $87 in the last 24 hours, with about $54K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.