Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of December?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Anthropic at 73.5%, ahead of Company A at 50.0%. $11K traded across 35 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
AITechLiveBenchRecurringAI Rankings
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 73.5% | +1.0 |
| Company A | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company B | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company C | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company D | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company E | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company F | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company G | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company H | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company I | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company J | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company K | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company L | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company M | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| OpenAI | 13.0% | -7.0 |
| MiniMax | 7.1% | +6.6 |
| 5.5% | -0.7 | |
| Z.ai | 5.1% | +1.1 |
| Amazon | 4.5% | +0.1 |
| Microsoft | 4.3% | +0.1 |
| SpaceXAI | 4.1% | +0.1 |
| Xiaomi | 3.5% | -1.6 |
| Thinky | 3.1% | +0.1 |
| StepFun | 0.6% | 0.0 |
| Meta | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Alibaba | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Moonshot | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| DeepSeek | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| ByteDance | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Nvidia | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Mistral | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Meituan | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Tencent | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Baidu | 0.5% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of December?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Anthropic is the favorite at 73.5%, followed by Company A at 50.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $11K in total and $345 in the last 24 hours, with about $18K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.