Resolved market scorecard
Which company has best AI model end of 2025?: result and scorecard
Resolved Google. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.1%; a week before, 97.2%. $36.3M traded in total.
Result
Google
resolved December 31, 2025
Price 1 day before
99.1%
Market was confident and right
Price 7 days before
97.2%
30 days before: 91.5%
Volume
$36.3M
17 outcomes
BusinessAI2025 PredictionsDeepSeekGrok
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| WON | |
| Microsoft | LOST |
| Tencent | LOST |
| OpenAI | LOST |
| Anthropic | LOST |
| xAI | LOST |
| Alibaba | LOST |
| DeepSeek | LOST |
| Z.ai | LOST |
| Meta | LOST |
| Moonshot | LOST |
| Mistral AI | LOST |
| Other | LOST |
| Company G | LOST |
| Company H | LOST |
| Company I | LOST |
| Company J | LOST |
Price history to resolution
GoogleMicrosoftTencentOpenAI
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.
Scorecard
A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.
Resolution rules
qqThis is a negrisk market group over which will be the top AI model on December 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Which company has best AI model end of 2025?" resolve?
- It resolved Google around December 31, 2025.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.1% one day before close, 97.2% one week before and 91.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $36.3M across 17 outcomes.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.