Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Denver, CO at 86.3%, ahead of Las Vegas, NV at 81.5%. $100K traded across 19 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Denver, CO | 86.3% | +0.8 |
| Las Vegas, NV | 81.5% | -1.0 |
| Detroit, MI | 10.0% | -1.0 |
| Portland, OR | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| London, UK | 6.6% | -0.5 |
| Chicago, IL | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| New Orleans, LA | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Sacramento, CA | 6.5% | -0.5 |
| Baltimore, MD | 6.3% | +1.4 |
| Seattle, WA | 5.9% | +0.1 |
| New York, NY | 5.7% | +0.1 |
| Philadelphia, PA | 5.0% | -0.5 |
| Charlotte, NC | 5.0% | 0.0 |
| Minneapolis, MN | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Pittsburgh, PA | 4.3% | -0.4 |
| Tokyo, Japan | 3.4% | 0.0 |
| St. Louis, MO | 3.1% | 0.0 |
| Washington, DC | 2.7% | -0.4 |
| Boston, MA | 2.4% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Denver, CO is the favorite at 86.3%, followed by Las Vegas, NV at 81.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $100K in total and $674 in the last 24 hours, with about $40K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.