Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 1 at 88.0%, ahead of 2 at 12.5%. $3.9M traded across 6 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
Weather & ScienceCultureGlobal TempWeatherClimate & Science
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 88.0% | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.5% | +3.0 |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| 6 or lower | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:55 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 1 is the favorite at 88.0%, followed by 2 at 12.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on March 2, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $3.9M in total and $2K in the last 24 hours, with about $235K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.