California winter 2026-27 wetter or drier?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Wetter at 72.5%, ahead of Drier at 27.5%. $1K traded across 2 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
WeatherclimateCaliforniaWeather & SciencePrecipitation
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Wetter | 72.5% | +2.5 |
| Drier | 27.5% | -2.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Drier" if California's statewide total precipitation for December 2026 through February 2027, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), is less than 11.99 inches. If the total is 11.99 inches or more, this market will resolve to "Wetter". 11.99 inches is NCEI's published 1991-2020 average for this period. The threshold is fixed at 11.99 inches, and any change to NCEI's published average will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance, specifically the February 2027 value of the California statewide precipitation series with the timescale set to "3-Month" and the month set to "February", at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series/4/pcp/3/2. The figure will be the Precipitation figure under California Precipitation found by either hovering over the graph or in the table on the link. The resolution source reports precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 11.54), which is the precision used to resolve this market. This market will resolve on the first value NCEI publishes for December 2026 through February 2027. Any later revision to that value will not be considered. If NCEI has not published this value on Climate at a Glance by May 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will instead resolve using the most recent NCEI statewide precipitation file (climdiv-pcpnst) at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/data/us/climdiv/monthly/current/. In that file, add the December value from the row beginning “0040012026” to the January and February values from the row beginning “0040012027” (004 is the California state code, 01 is the precipitation element code, and 2026/2027 is the year; December 2026 is the last monthly column in the 0040012026 row, while January and February 2027 are the first two monthly columns in the 0040012027 row), and compare the total against 11.99 inches to 2 decimal places.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "California winter 2026-27 wetter or drier?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Wetter is the favorite at 72.5%, followed by Drier at 27.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on March 16, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $1K in total and $2 in the last 24 hours, with about $318 of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.