What are the odds that Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 98.9% and No at 1.1%, on $11K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on April 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$11K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $1K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

Live market data

Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 98.9% (+0.8 pts in 24h). $11K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

98.9%

No 1.1% · Trade →

24h move

+0.8

pts · 7d +2.0

Volume

$11K

24h $0 · liquidity $1K

Closes

April 1, 2027

146 days left

Weather climate Weather & Science

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	98.9%	+0.8	+2.0	$11K	1.1¢
No	1.1%	-0.8	-2.0	$11K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF). This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data. The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 99% risks 99¢ to win 1¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 98.9% and No at 1.1%, on $11K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on April 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $11K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $1K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.