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Home / Markets / When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
Resolved market scorecard

When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?: result and scorecard

Resolved No release by November 1. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.9%; a week before, 98.0%. $332K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No release by November 1
resolved November 2, 2026

Price 1 day before

98.9%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

98.0%
30 days before: 76.5%

Volume

$332K
11 outcomes

AITechGeminigoogleGemini Pro

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
No release by November 1WON$178K
October 12–October 18LOST$50K
September 28–October 4LOST$30K
October 5–October 11LOST$29K
October 19–October 25LOST$21K
October 26–November 1LOST$17K
September 21–September 27LOST$2K
September 7–September 13LOST$2K
Prior to August 31LOST$779
September 14–September 20LOST$754
August 31–September 6LOST$514

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%08-1809-2511-02
No release by November 1October 12–October 18September 28–October 4October 5–October 11
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?" resolve?
It resolved No release by November 1 around November 1, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.9% one day before close, 98.0% one week before and 76.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$332K across 11 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.