When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?: result and scorecard
Resolved No release by November 1. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.9%; a week before, 98.0%. $332K traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| No release by November 1 | WON |
| October 12–October 18 | LOST |
| September 28–October 4 | LOST |
| October 5–October 11 | LOST |
| October 19–October 25 | LOST |
| October 26–November 1 | LOST |
| September 21–September 27 | LOST |
| September 7–September 13 | LOST |
| Prior to August 31 | LOST |
| September 14–September 20 | LOST |
| August 31–September 6 | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?" resolve?
- It resolved No release by November 1 around November 1, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.9% one day before close, 98.0% one week before and 76.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $332K across 11 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.