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US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is December 31 at 17.0%. $95K traded across 1 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

17.0%
December 31 · Trade →

24h move

0.0
pts · 7d -0.5

Volume

$95K
24h $0 · liquidity $342

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

TrumpVenezuelaPresidentGeopoliticsCuba

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
December 3117.0% 0.0-0.5$41K22.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%07-0109-0311-06
December 31

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31 at 17% risks 17¢ to win 83¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, December 31 is the favorite at 17.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$95K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $342 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.