Who is favored in "Ukraine peace referendum passed by...?"?

As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2027 is the favorite at 32.5%, followed by June 30, 2027 at 7.5%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$77K in total and $223 in the last 24 hours, with about $22K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Ukraine peace referendum passed by...?

Live market data

Ukraine peace referendum passed by...?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Ukraine peace referendum passed by...? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is December 31, 2027 at 32.5%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 7.5%. $77K traded across 3 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

32.5%

December 31, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

+1.5

pts · 7d 0.0

Volume

$77K

24h $223 · liquidity $22K

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

Trump Russia zelensky Ukraine Peace Deal Politics

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
December 31, 2027	32.5%	+1.5	0.0	$531	5.0¢
June 30, 2027	7.5%	0.0	0.0	$2K	1.0¢
December 31, 2026	3.1%	0.0	-1.8	$74K	1.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

December 31, 2027June 30, 2027December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31, 2027 at 33% risks 33¢ to win 68¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Ukraine peace referendum passed by...?"?: As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2027 is the favorite at 32.5%, followed by June 30, 2027 at 7.5%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $77K in total and $223 in the last 24 hours, with about $22K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.