Turkish troops enter Yemen by...?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Turkish troops enter any part of Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Turkish troops" refers to active military personnel officially affiliated with Turkey. Only members of the regular armed forces of Turkey will qualify. Foreign fighters, private military contractors, mercenaries, or any other personnel recruited, paid, trained, equipped or directed by Turkey who are not members of the Turkish armed forces will not qualify, regardless of whether they operate under Turkish command or on Turkey’s behalf. Members of the armed forces of any other state, including those operating as part of a Turkish-led coalition, will not qualify. "Enter" means that the Turkish troops, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Yemen, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Turkish troop entry will not qualify without actual entry being established. The entrance of Turkish emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify. If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying entry cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date. If Turkish troop entry into the specified territory is not established by this market's resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey, including the Turkish Ministry of National Defense; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.