Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Lebanon at 5.5%, ahead of Venezuela at 5.5%. $987K traded across 16 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
SyriaYemenIsraelGeopoliticsMiddle East
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Lebanon | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Venezuela | 5.5% | -0.5 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3.6% | 0.0 |
| Indonesia | 3.5% | 0.0 |
| Pakistan | 3.3% | 0.0 |
| Kuwait | 3.3% | -0.1 |
| Qatar | 2.8% | 0.0 |
| Malaysia | 2.5% | 0.0 |
| Cuba | 2.3% | -0.1 |
| North Korea | 2.0% | -0.1 |
| Syria | 1.8% | 0.0 |
| Afghanistan | 1.7% | -0.3 |
| Tunisia | 1.7% | -0.3 |
| Iran | 1.4% | -1.1 |
| Iraq | 1.1% | -0.1 |
| Bangladesh | 0.6% | -0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Lebanon is the favorite at 5.5%, followed by Venezuela at 5.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $987K in total and $4K in the last 24 hours, with about $409K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.