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Home / Markets / Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?
Live market data

Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 14.5% (-0.5 pts in 24h). $11K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

14.5%
No 85.5% · Trade →

24h move

-0.5
pts · 7d +3.5

Volume

$11K
24h $0 · liquidity $464

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

TurkeyElectionsreferendumerdoganReferenda

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes14.5% -0.5+3.5$11K11.0¢
No85.5% +0.5-3.5$11K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%04-0207-2011-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held. If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 14% risks 14¢ to win 86¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 14.5% and No at 85.5%, on $11K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$11K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $464 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.