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Resolved market scorecard

Texas Senate Election Winner: result and scorecard

Resolved James Talarico (D). One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 74.5%; a week before, 67.5%. $21.8M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 01:43 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

James Talarico (D)
resolved November 4, 2026

Price 1 day before

74.5%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

67.5%
30 days before: 63.5%

Volume

$21.8M
13 outcomes

Texas SenateTexas MidtermSenate ElectionsKen PaxtonJames Talarico

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
James Talarico (D)WON$10.1M
Ken Paxton (R)LOST$11.8M
Person ALOST$0
Person BLOST$0
Person CLOST$0
Person DLOST$0
Person ELOST$0
Person FLOST$0
Person GLOST$0
Person HLOST$0
Person ILOST$0
Person JLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%10-1404-2511-04
James Talarico (D)Ken Paxton (R)
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 75% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Texas Senate Election Winner" resolve?
It resolved James Talarico (D) around November 4, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 74.5% one day before close, 67.5% one week before and 63.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$21.8M across 13 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.