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Live market data

Texas Senate Election: Turnout: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is 9.6M-10M at 47.0%, ahead of 10M-10.4M at 34.0%. $48K traded across 10 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

47.0%
9.6M-10M · Trade →

24h move

-0.5
pts · 7d +25.5

Volume

$48K
24h $473 · liquidity $31K

Closes

November 4, 2026
0 days left

TurnoutMidtermsPoliticsElectionsMidterm MOV

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
9.6M-10M47.0% -0.5+25.5$11K86.0¢
10M-10.4M34.0% +5.0+1.0$6K66.0¢
10.4M-10.8M13.5% +1.0-0.5$5K23.0¢
9.2M-9.6M8.4% -0.1-5.8$3K16.0¢
10.8M-11.2M3.9% -0.3-2.1$2K5.9¢
11.2M+1.3% +0.1-19.8$15K1.7¢
<8M0.9% 0.00.0$2K1.6¢
8.4M-8.8M0.5% 0.0-0.4$1K0.8¢
8.8M-9.2M0.4% -0.3+0.1$2K0.5¢
8M-8.4M0.1% 0.0-0.3$1K0.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
9.6M-10M10M-10.4M10.4M-10.8M9.2M-9.6M

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying 9.6M-10M at 47% risks 47¢ to win 53¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Texas Senate Election: Turnout"?
As of November 6, 2026, 9.6M-10M is the favorite at 47.0%, followed by 10M-10.4M at 34.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on November 4, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$48K in total and $473 in the last 24 hours, with about $31K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Minnesota Senate Election: TurnoutOklahoma Senate Election: TurnoutNorth Carolina Senate Election: TurnoutOhio Senate Election: TurnoutGeorgia Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)Kentucky Senate Election: TurnoutHawaii Governor Election: TurnoutSouth Dakota Senate Election: TurnoutAll live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.