Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is 370K-400K at 54.5%, ahead of 340K-370K at 31.1%. $47K traded across 8 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
TurnoutMidtermsPoliticsElectionsMidterm MOV
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| 370K-400K | 54.5% | +32.0 |
| 340K-370K | 31.1% | -7.3 |
| 310K-340K | 8.5% | -9.5 |
| 430K-460K | 6.9% | -3.8 |
| 460K-490K | 6.2% | -1.8 |
| 490K+ | 4.0% | +0.1 |
| 400K-430K | 1.5% | -11.3 |
| <310K | 1.4% | +0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout"?
- As of November 6, 2026, 370K-400K is the favorite at 54.5%, followed by 340K-370K at 31.1%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 4, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $47K in total and $273 in the last 24 hours, with about $14K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.