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Home / Markets / Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner
Resolved market scorecard

Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner: result and scorecard

Resolved TVK. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 9.7%; a week before, 8.8%. $22.9M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

TVK
resolved May 4, 2026

Price 1 day before

9.7%
Market was confident and wrong

Price 7 days before

8.8%
30 days before: 7.3%

Volume

$22.9M
38 outcomes

IndiaMain ElectionIndian ElectionsPoliticsWorld Elections

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
TVKWON$2.3M
INCLOST$17.9M
ADMKLOST$1.2M
DMKLOST$1.2M
AITCLOST$82K
BJPLOST$75K
CPI(M)LOST$60K
NPEPLOST$44K
DMDKLOST$38K
NCPLOST$29K
BSPLOST$28K
CPILOST$28K
OtherLOST$0
Party BLOST$0
Party CLOST$0
Party DLOST$0
Party ELOST$0
Party FLOST$0
Party GLOST$0
Party HLOST$0
Party ILOST$0
Party JLOST$0
Party KLOST$0
Party LLOST$0
Party MLOST$0
Party NLOST$0
Party OLOST$0
Party PLOST$0
Party QLOST$0
Party RLOST$0
Party SLOST$0
Party TLOST$0
Party ULOST$0
Party VLOST$0
Party WLOST$0
Party XLOST$0
Party YLOST$0
Party ZLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%12-2402-2705-04
TVKINCADMKDMK
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 10% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Tamil Nadu, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes statewide. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner" resolve?
It resolved TVK around April 23, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 9.7% one day before close, 8.8% one week before and 7.3% one month before.
How much was traded?
$22.9M across 38 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.