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Resolved market scorecard

Q1 S&P 500 Performance: result and scorecard

Resolved <0%. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.7%; a week before, 93.0%. $355K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

<0%
resolved April 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.7%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

93.0%
30 days before: 53.5%

Volume

$355K
9 outcomes

FinanceEconomyIndiciesS&P 500

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
<0%WON$43K
4-5%LOST$68K
6-8%LOST$59K
5-6%LOST$46K
3-4%LOST$43K
8-10%LOST$35K
10%+LOST$24K
2-3%LOST$20K
0-2%LOST$15K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-1502-2204-01
<0%4-5%6-8%5-6%
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).

Frequently asked questions

How did "Q1 S&P 500 Performance" resolve?
It resolved <0% around March 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.7% one day before close, 93.0% one week before and 53.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$355K across 9 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.