Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Company A at 50.0%, ahead of Company B at 50.0%. $34K traded across 35 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
AIMathTechRecurringAI Rankings
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Company A | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company B | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company C | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company D | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company E | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company F | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company G | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company H | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company I | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company J | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company K | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company L | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Company M | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| 36.5% | +7.0 | |
| Anthropic | 33.0% | +0.5 |
| Meta | 12.0% | -0.7 |
| StepFun | 4.7% | +0.1 |
| Alibaba | 4.0% | 0.0 |
| OpenAI | 4.0% | 0.0 |
| Moonshot | 4.0% | 0.0 |
| ByteDance | 3.5% | +0.1 |
| MiniMax | 3.0% | -1.4 |
| Z.ai | 2.8% | 0.0 |
| SpaceXAI | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| Microsoft | 1.9% | 0.0 |
| Tencent | 1.2% | 0.0 |
| Baidu | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| DeepSeek | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Meituan | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Xiaomi | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Amazon | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Thinky | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Mistral | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Nvidia | 0.2% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Company A is the favorite at 50.0%, followed by Company B at 50.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $34K in total and $444 in the last 24 hours, with about $40K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.