What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 53.5% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.

Home / Markets / North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?

Resolved market scorecard

North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?: result and scorecard

Name: North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 53.5%; a week before, –. $88K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes

resolved April 19, 2026

Price 1 day before

53.5%

Market was a coin flip

Price 7 days before

–

30 days before: –

Volume

$88K

1 outcome

Kim Jong Un North Korea Geopolitics Rewards 20, 4.5, 50

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	WON	$88K
No	LOST	$88K

Price history to resolution

Not enough price history yet for a chart.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 54% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

Frequently asked questions

How did "North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?" resolve?: It resolved Yes around April 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 53.5% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $88K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.